Fed Economist: Housing Marking Swoon Foreshadows Possible Recession

A top Federal Reserve economist for the Eighth District that includes Arkansas said in a recent research note several historically reliable housing indicators pointed to a possible recession in late 2019 or early 2020.

In his latest publication, William Emmons, assistant vice president and chief economist of the St. Louis Fed’s Center for Household Financial Stability, studied several housing indicators looking for signs of a possible recession around the corner. Movements in mortgage rates, existing single-family home sales, inflation-adjusted house prices and residential investment contributions to economic growth all seem to resemble patterns that preceded the last three recessions of 1990, 2001 and 2007, he said.

“Through early 2019, these housing-related forecast indicators remained consistent with the possibility of a late 2019 or early 2020 recession,” Emmons said in his quarterly housing market report posted June 28th.      MORE

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